NFL odds picks for Week 14: Advanced computer model loves Steelers and Patriots

The 2017 NFL season's 14th weekend will attract bets from average Joes to professional bettors. The New England Patriots are 11-point favorites over the Miami Dolphins, the L.A. Rams are 2.5-point favorites over the Philadelphia Eagles, and the Seattle Seahawks are 2.5-point road underdogs cross-country against the Jacksonville Jaguars in a game that's already had plenty of line movement.

With so many eye-popping games and so many NFL odds on the move, you'll want to know what SportsLine's advanced computer model is picking.
SportsLine's Projection Model went 174-80-2 on straight-up NFL picks last season, better than all 98 experts tracked by NFLPickWatch -- every single one. It's again threatening to be one of the top models in 2017.

SportsLine computer picks also would have won more than 96 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool Manager leagues that made straight-up NFL picks last season and would be leading many pools again this year.

It's fresh off a week in which it went 13-3 on straight-up NFL picks, improving its record to 26-6 over the past two weeks. Last week, it nailed the exact margin of victory for the Steelers' win over the Bengals and It was also all over the Titans' win and cover over the Texans, nailing that margin of victory within a single point. Anyone who has followed its picks is up big.

With Week 14 here, the computer simulated every matchup 10,000 times and came up with some surprising results.

One team, SportsLine's proven model, is all-in on: the New England Patriots. The model loves Tom Brady and company to beat the Dolphins in an AFC East showdown and easily cover an 11-point spread in a 28-12 decision.

No matter how high the line, the Patriots continue to cover and burn Vegas in the process. Their cover of a double-digit spread against the Bills last week moved them to 8-4 against the spread this season, and it was their sixth straight cover.
The Patriots covered against the Dolphins two weeks ago as 16.5-point favorites, winning by 18. Even with Rob Gronkowski out (suspension), the model has New England covering the spread in 59 percent of simulations. And the Patriots should get WR Chris Hogan (shoulder) back on Sunday for the first time since Week 8.
Another team the model is all over in Week 14: the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are five-point favorites over the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football. Despite no JuJu Smith-Schuster (suspension) for Pittsburgh, the model says the Steelers win and cover with room to spare, 26-19.

Though this could be a fierce battle, don't be turned off by the five-point line. Back the Steelers and their elite playmakers on offense such as Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown over the Ravens' inconsistent offense. They're covering in 55 percent of simulations.
The Steelers have won seven straight and scored 30 points in two of their last three games. They've had a player go over 100 yards receiving in all but four games this season.

One surprise: the AFC South-leading Titans, who are three-point favorites on the road against the Cardinals, go down hard in a 23-22 upset.

The Titans don't always win pretty, but they've had six victories in their last seven games. The Cardinals are barely afloat at 5-7, but they did pull the stunner against the Jags in Week 12, and the model is expecting Arizona to throw another wrench in the playoff race this week.

The public is taking Arizona (+3) against the spread just 37 percent of the time, but the model likes the Cardinals against the spread 55 percent of the time. The Arizona money line is +135.

The model also has a high pick you need to see for the vast NFC showdown between the L.A. Rams and the Philadelphia Eagles -- two legitimate Super Bowl contenders. You can only get that pick at SportsLine.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 14? Check out the NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, plus see which side of the big Rams-Eagles game you need to be all over, all from the model that would have won 96 percent of football pools last season and went 13-3 straight up last week, and get NFL picks from 16 experts.

Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 38.5)
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+3.5, 41.5)
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 48.5)
Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (+2.5, 40.5)
Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns (+3, 40.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (-2.5, 44.5)
Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Bucs (n/a)
Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (n/a)
New York Jets at Denver Broncos (+1, 41.5)
Tennessee Titans at Arizona Cardinals (+3, 44)
Washington Redskins at L.A. Chargers (-6, 46)
Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5, 40)
Philadelphia Eagles at L.A. Rams (-2.5, 48)
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5, 44)
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+11, 47.5)